As air warms over time, less precipitation makes it to the reservoirs due to evaporation. Additionally, there are possible inflow scenarios that would result in reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports. What's the weather forecast for 2050? While the lake was significantly higher in 2011 and 2012 than in 2005, a careful comparison of the side canyons reveals that the level was still not back to 1999 levels, when the lake was near full capacity. Electricity produced at Lake Powells Glen Canyon Dam, which serves some 50 Colorado utilities, and dozens of others in the Colorado River Basin, has been cut in half by the 20-year drought, with power levels over the next two years projected to be 47% lower than normal, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. The probable minimum inflow scenario reflects a dry hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 90 percent of the time. Newsweek reached out to the U.S. Geological Survey for comment. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. Please contact the Operations Group via e-mail at ResourceMgr@usbr.gov for additional information. 8_9dyB`n`` +30|@,6a # A Colorado River flows drop and tensions rise, water interests struggle Can the Ancient Humpback Chub Hang On in Todays Grand Canyon? The reservoir's levels rise after consistent rain or snowpack melt in the area. As of Wednesday, the water level was 3,524.22 feet. Lake Powell was at 26% of capacity, 168 feet below its full elevation of 3,700 feet above sea level at . Part of the Glen Canyon Conservancy Family, Utah D.O.T Charles Hall Ferry for UT Route 276. Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 11, 2023 There are currently 1,757,155,460,140 gallons of water in Lake Powell! The elevations listed in the August 2022 24-Month Study report reflected the projected physical elevations at each reservoir after implementing operations as described for water year 2023 tier determination purposes. google_color_link = "0000FF"; google_color_url = "426C95"; The forecast is changing daily and there are still a lot of variables, said Lisa Meiman, a spokeswoman for WAPA. The February forecast for water year 2023 ranges from a minimum probable of 8.37 maf (87 percent of average) to a January forecasted maximum probable of 14.93 maf (155 percent of average) with the most probable forecast for water year 2023 of 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). . The Colorado River cuts through dry land that was once covered by Lake Powell on September 7, 2022, near Hite, Utah. average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. The Upper Basin reservoirs have already provided 161,000 acre-feet of water pursuant to the imminent need provision of the Drought Response Operations Agreement, including 36,000 acre-feet from Blue Mesa Reservoir in Colorado. We have to take a strong look at what we will do in the unlikely event that Lake Powell stops producing hydropower, said WAPAs Meiman. inflow forecast for water year 2022 by approximately 2.2 million acre-feet from . In January, following the wet December Moser noted, the NOAA forecast called for 98% of the 30-year average to reach Powell. google_ad_width = 160; After decades of drought, the water level in Lake Powell has sunk to unimaginable lows, threatening millions of people who rely on the water supply. WEco is funded by multiple donors. The Colorado Sun is a journalist-owned, award-winning news outlet based in Denver that strives to cover all of Colorado so that our state our community can better understand itself. Both Moser and Lukas said that dry soil moisture conditions across the Colorado River Basin, which can sponge off valuable runoff before the water makes it into rivers and streams, wont be quite as bad as last year but will still be a negative factor. Feet above sea level Change - Feet difference over previous . The May report, released last week, is the final runoff prediction for the season. A 59% flow into Powell translates to about 3.8 million acre-feet. Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizonas Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. Chris Outcalt covers Western water issues for The Colorado Sun. Wang suggests updating the reference period more frequently or using the last 20 years as the baseline. Lake Powell Water Level including historical chart. Graphical view of Lake Powell water data. Water levels in Lake Powell dropped to a new record low on Tuesday. Across the region, water utilities are in high-alert mode, preparing for another dry year on the Colorado River and holding hope that the Upper Basin reservoirs can be protected as long as possible from large-scale drought releases. Significant amounts of snowfall over the winter of 20102011 meant more water for Lake Powell, and this effect lasted into the spring of 2012. (Hugh Carey, The Colorado Sun), How Denver is spending the $41M from the Broncos sale, (720) 263-2338 Call, text, Signal or WhatsApp, Proudly powered by Newspack by Automattic. google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; In the latter half of the decade, the drought eased somewhat. The modeling approach for WY 2023 will apply to 2024. google_ad_format = "160x600_as"; Its better than last year, but well just have to see what the next two to four weeks holds for precipitation.. With low-runoff conditions and . water-data.com LakePowell Water Database . These instantaneous release adjustments stabilize the electrical generation and transmission system and translate to a range of about 1,300 cfs above or below the hourly scheduled release rate. The 30-year average was updated in October 2022 from 1981 through 2010 to 1991 through 2020. (2007). Reclamation will continue to carefully monitor hydrologic and operational conditions and assess the need for additional responsive actions and/or changes to operations. So, it takes awhile to fill and it takes awhile to empty.". This was the lowest water levels have been since the lake was first constructed in the 1930s. SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites levels. This article contains new, firsthand information uncovered by its reporter(s). As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. Projections of end of water year 2023 elevation using the February minimum and January maximum inflow forecast results are 3,544.04 feet and 3,582.24 feet, respectively. Precipitation declines combined with booming urban populations will present a significant challenge to Western water managers in the near future. Since the beginning of water year 2000, total Colorado Basin storage has experienced year to year increases and decreases in response to wet and dry hydrology, ranging from a high of 94 percent of capacity at the beginning of 2000 to the now current level of 33 percent of capacity at the beginning of water year 2023. 192 0 obj <>stream Lake Powells water levels plummeted in early 2005, according to the U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation. This includes directly interviewing sources and research / analysis of primary source documents. The nation's second-largest reservoir is under pressure from climate change and steady demand, and is now . The forecast for water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell, issued on January 5, 2023, by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, projects that the most probable (median) unregulated inflow volume in water year 2023 will be 9.5 maf (99 percent of average). Dry conditions and falling water levels were unmistakable in the image from April 13, 2003. google_ad_format = "160x600_as"; Although developing snowpack in the area is "fairly good" and might stave off dead pool in Lake Powell for another year or so, according to Lund, the solution lies with people conserving water. Correction: This article has been corrected to indicate that Lake Powell began filling 59 years ago, not 60 years, as the original article stated. Last July, to protect the 3,525 buffer zone, Reclamation ordered emergency water releases from three reservoirs in the Upper Colorado River Basin. At the same time, electric utilities across the West are looking for other green options and hoping that hydropower production wont stop altogether. The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. The amount of water predicted to flow into Lake Powell this year is down slightly from the previous month, according to the May report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. Climate change also plays a part. In July 2021, water levels on the lake fell to the lowest point since 1969 and have continued dropping. The peak inflow to Lake Powell occurs in mid- to late spring, as the winter snow in the Rocky Mountains melts. But in a statement, she said, The Upper Basin States are working collaboratively with the Bureau of Reclamation to draft a 2022 Drought Response Operations Plan outlining potential releases from Upper Basin reservoirs in an effort to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell. The Water Desks mission isto increase the volume, depth and power of journalismconnected to Western water issues. Detailed Map of Powell To view the current inflow forecast relative to past inflows, click on Lake Powell Inflow Forecast. Close Become a member Login My Account Logout Search for:Search News Education Health Coloradans Equity Sun Investigation Crime and Courts Culture Sports Water Summary Today is day 136 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. Now, though, we know that its not firm, its not reliable, and its coming at a much higher cost.. The bureau also announced it would release an additional 500,000 acre-feet of water from Flaming Gorge reservoir in Wyoming to further raise the water level at Powell. Global warming is expected to make droughts more severe in the future. By Anna Skinner On 1/18/23 at 4:42 PM EST. Water managers, who . Even Less water forecast to flow into Lake Powell this year, report says May NOAA runoff report predicts even less water will flow into Lake Powell this year than previously forecasted. To view the most current reservoir elevation projections, click on: Lake Powell Elevation Projections. google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; In water year 2021 unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell was 3.50 maf (36 percent of average), the second driest year on record above 2002. By May 1, the spring-summer runoff outcomes are pretty well locked in, which means theres virtually no escape from a third poor runoff year in a row, Jeff Lukas, an independent water and climate researcher based in Lafayette, said in an email. Lake Mead's water levels . About 40 million people rely on the Colorado River for domestic use and farmers and ranchers use water from the river to irrigate more than 3 million acres of farmland. At the west end of Narrow Canyon, the Dirty Devil River joins the lake from the north. Were going to be generating less than we have in quite some time. In the main body of Lake Powell, water pooled along its eastern edge, while large expanses of dry canyon floor were visible in the west. An acre-foot is the amount of water needed to fill one acre of land to a height of one foot. The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. google_ad_channel ="2397569894"; Much of that water. google_color_link = "0000FF"; The forecast isnt great, said Kyle Whitaker, Colorado River Manager for the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District, one of the largest diverters of water in the headwaters region of the river. "As a result of this update, the median water year 2022 inflow forecast into Lake Powell decreased by 800,000 acre-feet," USBR stated in a press release distributed Thursday. By, What We Know, And What You Can Do To Help. Under system normal conditions, fluctuations for regulation are typically short lived and generally balance out over the hour with minimal or no noticeable impacts on downstream river flow conditions. Learn more at, Photos: Heron Lake, New Mexico, August 2022, Data viz: Elephant Butte Reservoir levels, to increase the volume, depth and power of journalism, https://www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/, www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/. Utahs Flaming Gorge, Colorados Blue Mesa and New Mexicos Navajo. Shortages have been implemented by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in areas like Arizona as water levels in the reservoir have consistently dropped for the past 10 years. View CFS Last 14 Measurements Lake Powell is down -1.03 feet over these measurements Averages for February 27th Last 10 February 27th's data records The end of January elevation and storage of Lake Powell were 3,523.45 feet (177 feet from full pool) and 5.45 million acre-feet (maf) (23 percent of live capacity), respectively. Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. (For comparison, the 1991-2020 total water year average is 9.60 maf.) Today is day 151 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. Note that projections of elevation and storage for water year 2023 have significant uncertainty at this point in the season. Federal and state water managers have watched the water level in Lake Powell closely this year. It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert . Precipitation was better, but still slightly below normal in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Her work has appeared nationally on NPR and been featured on Science Friday. There is approximately an 80 percent probability that a future elevation will fall inside the range of the minimum and maximum inflow scenarios. Antelope Point Marina on Feb. 3, 2022, in the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area near Page. The probable maximum inflow scenario reflects a wet hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 10 percent of the time. Flight Center. 15 Day Weather Forecast Lake Powell has fallen victim to excessive water use as a 20-year drought parches the region. His freelance CNN's Bill Weir has more. Forecasts are calling for 4.1 million acre-feet of water to flow into Lake Powell from April to July this year, but water managers are obligated to release more than 7 million acre-feet out of the lake. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. He began his journalism career in New Hampshire, then moved West and became a reporter at the Lafayette News. The critical issue is how to maintain the lake at 3,525, which marks an elevation that is the top of the liquid buffer zone designed to protect the lakes mighty electricity turbines. From there, a swing to the northeast delivers boats into Lake Powell's main artery. The basin states, in a response letter, expressed concern that the water level of Lake Powell would decline below critical elevations, making the dam inoperable. Projections at Lake Mead show there is a chance as high as 66% that water levels will decline to 1,025 feet by 2025, triggering a Tier 3 Shortage. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. But the declining water already has drained some of the fun, he said. Drop us a note at tips@coloradosun.com. //-->, Printable Version The picture was much different 59 years ago, when the giant storage reservoir on the Colorado River was filling, its electricity helping power the West and the revenue from its power sales helping fund endangered fish protection programs across the Colorado River Basin. The lake level began to rebound; only the 2008 image appeared to deviate from the trend toward rising water levels. Consistent with Section 6.D.1 of the Interim Guidelines, Lake Powells operations in water year 2023 are governed by the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier (LEBT) with an initial projected water year release volume of 7.00 maf. An initiative of the Center for Environmental Journalism at the University of Colorado Boulder. Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section). The water level in Lake Powell was at a record low when rain and snow began to fall across the Colorado River Basin in October, soaking dry soils ahead of the winter season. Surface Water Elevation (feet) Lake Powell End of Month Elevations1 . 0.523 maf in Lake Powell from December 2022 through April 2023. Based on current inflow forecasts, the current projected end of water year 2023 total Colorado Basin reservoir storage is approximately 20.93 maf (36 percent of total system capacity). Depending on the severity of the system emergency, the response from Glen Canyon Dam can be significant, within the full range of the operating capacity of the power plant for as long as is necessary to maintain balance in the transmission system. Water levels in Narrow Canyon had dropped enough to show canyon floor features not visible in earlier images. water-data.com Lake Powell Water Database. //2006-10-04: news The drop in the power forecast comes as Upper Colorado River Basin states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming prepare to finalize a new drought operations plan for the giant river system. As the forecast season progresses, and last updated 5:24 PM, Sep 24, 2021. The reduction of releases from Lake Powell from 7.48 maf to 7.00 maf in water year 2022 resulted in a reduced release volume of 0.480 maf that normally would have been released from Glen Canyon Dam to Lake Mead as part of the 7.48 maf annual release volume, consistent with operations under the 2007 Interim Guidelines. The Glen Canyon Dam annual release has initially been set to 7.00 maf, and in April 2023 Reclamation will evaluate hydrologic conditions to determine if balancing releases may be appropriate under the conditions established in the 2007 Interim Guidelines; Balancing releases will be limited (with a minimum of 7.00 maf) to protect Lake Powell from declining below elevation 3,525 feet at the end of December 2023; Balancing releases will take into account operational neutrality of the 0.480 maf that was retained in Lake Powell under the. Lake Powell is so low that it is nearing a dead pool, in which water levels aren't high enough to deliver water downstream. Fresh Water News is an independent, nonpartisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. :pNB/gb2D0p6Ecb :qD_q7wE42TOOSW:Oa^(-]p7y|iZ.8uq:}1y3bJ]!G ) ytRdJp2 +[|}QpEU}V'k{yeKud"xl_-x lJ!UZ`,n!\3{dcb Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use Wednesday snow and wind will be heavy at times leading to difficult if not impossible travel. New 1991-2020 Averages being used this year. Get the most up to date information on Lake Powell's water levels and the status of launch ramps from the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and more with the links and pages below. That projection is about 12 feet higher than the 2023 end-of-year mark in the bureau's forecast from December. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell's water levels. Lake Powell is now at a historic low. Changes in the northeastern reaches of Lake Powell are documented in this series of natural-color images taken by the Landsat series of satellites between 1999 and 2021. A century of river flow records combined with an additional four to five centuries of tree-ring data show that the droughts over the past two decades were not unusual; longer and more severe droughts are a regular part of the climate variability in that part of the continent. In the image acquired on May 1, 2004, the reservoirs northwestern branch is isolated from the main reservoir; the shallow water upstream could not crest raised areas in the lakebed. In the early years of this image series, water levels began to drop. Our editorial policy and donor list can be viewed atwateredco.org. There are continued discussions when and how that same amount of water (0.523 maf) will be . Lake Powell Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2022 Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. But the 30-year period is the standard reference worldwide and captures more variability, according to Paul Miller of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. Last Reading: 3522.33 on Feb 12, 2023. By Leia Larsen. | March 17, 2022, 6:57 a.m. As predicted, southern Utah's Lake Powell has fallen below a critical level that soon could threaten its ability . A powerful winter storm will enter AZ early Tuesday night with rain and snow showers increasing across the region after midnight. For more information on the tools we use, consult, Upper Colorado Mainstem Specific Site Forecasts. google_color_text = "000000"; Upper Colorado River Basin regularly experiences significant year to year hydrologic variability. Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizona's Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. DATE MEASURED ELEVATION CHANGE CONTENT INFLOW OUTFLOW HIGH TEMP LOW TEMP WATER TEMP . google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; Level 3 Shortage Condition 1,025 ft and below Elevation 1,090 ft Elevation 1,045 ft Historical Future Though the 2022 forecast isnt expected to be finalized until later this month, water officials expect that more water will have to be released from Upper Basin storage reservoirs this summer because inflows into the lake from the drought-stressed Colorado River are expected to be well below average again, in the 60% to 80% range. The most probable inflow scenario reflects a median hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 50 percent of the time. Lukas noted that the dry soil conditions are factored into the NOAA runoff predictions from the get-go so there shouldnt necessarily be any big surprises with that particular variable. The northwestern side branch of Lake Powell remained cut off from the rest of the reservoir. In addition to daily scheduled fluctuations for power generation, the instantaneous releases from Glen Canyon Dam may also fluctuate to provide 40 megawatts (MW) of system regulation. SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites This is a decrease of 3.33 maf over the total storage at the beginning of water year 2022 when total system storage was 22.87 maf (39 percent of capacity). If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us. At the same time, power producers are gearing up to craft a fallback plan for extending hydropower production at Glen Canyon Dam if water levels continue to fall. Were an initiative of theCenter for Environmental Journalismat the University of Colorado Boulder. Even in low emission climate scenarios (forecasts that are based on the assumption that future carbon dioxide emissions will increase relatively slowly), models predict precipitation may decline by 20-25 percent over most of California, southern Nevada, and Arizona by the end of this century. 175 0 obj <>/Filter/FlateDecode/ID[<68753438768B134985CC80C922059B30>]/Index[159 34]/Info 158 0 R/Length 84/Prev 199590/Root 160 0 R/Size 193/Type/XRef/W[1 2 1]>>stream Official Glen Canyon National Recreation Area Changing Lake Levels Info. Up to 80 percent of water use in the basin is for agricultural purposes, but urban water conservation serves an important purpose, too. https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294, https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196, USGS site #09180500 - Colorado River near Cisco, UT, USGS site #09315000 - Green River at Green River, UT, USGS site #09379500 - San Juan River near Bluff, UT, USGS site #09380000 - Colorado River at Lees Ferry, AZ, Snowpack Conditions Upper Colorado Region Above Lake Powell, Lake Powell Inflow Forecast April-July Inflow Forecast, Current Water Year Inflow Forecast Monthly Outlooks, Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program, LTEMP - Long-Term Experimental & Management Plan, Report to Congress - Operations of Glen Canyon Dam - Water Year 2015-2016, National Park Service Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, National Park Service Grand Canyon National Park, U.S. (Due to the angle of sunlight, this image may cause an optical illusion known as relief inversion.). This is the big warning bell.. Prepared by Ashley Nielson NOAA, National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Salt Lake City, Utah www.cbrfc.noaa.gov Contents Scientists say the current drought is the driest on record in the last twelve hundred years. The annual release volume from Lake Powell during water year 2023 will be 7.77 maf under the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier and will balance the contents between Powell and Mead with annual release volumes from Glen Canyon Dam between 7.00 maf and 9.50 maf as determined under Section 6.D.1 and 7.D of the Interim Guidelines as determined by the Department of the Interior as described above. %PDF-1.7 % She reported that, as of March 16, 2022, Lake Powell was at an elevation of 3,524.83 feet (ft.) with storage of 5.916 million acre-feet (maf) or 24 percent of capacity. 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